Value Betting


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Value Betting

The concept of value betting a very important in the betting markets but many do not understand this concept. This is due to the fact that no one, not even the bookies can know the exact true odds of the outcome of a sporting event. Only a good estimate of the probability of each result can be made.

The idea behind value betting is estimating the true odds of any outcome better than the bookies then grasping the opportunities when the bookies make mistakes, and trust me, they make lots of mistakes.

Let me explain a small example to illustrate what value betting is in real world term. Let’s say for example you want to buy a watch. You have been looking for a while and have settled on the exact make and model of the watch that you want. Now you just have to find the cheapest price. You do some research and find out that the watch is worth $100. Now if you go down to the nearest watch shop would you instantly buy the watch for $200 just because you want that watch? No! Of course you wouldn’t, but in contrast if you saw that exact same watch for $50 you would snap it up so quickly because you know you got a good deal.

This is the same principle behind value betting. If you believe Chelsea are going to win their next match and with your knowledge of the game you believe that Chelsea should be around 2/1 to win. Now knowing this why would you put a bet on Chelsea to win at even money just because you think they will win this time. That is not where the value is, you are putting a bet on at even money when the true probability of the outcome is 2/1.

Whereas now if you notice that a bookie has put Chelsea at 3/1 to win the game, you have a value bet. You can put that bet on knowing that if you could put that bet on 100s of times you will show a profit. In a world where the bookmakers try to set the odds to a point where they win and the punters lose, understanding value betting is the difference between winning and losing in the fixed odds markets.

The bookies have to create odds for all markets on all events so they will get some of the nuances wrong. For example a certain golfer who isn’t famous and therefore doesn’t generally command low odds for major championships is playing a major next week. The bookies need to give all players odds and focus on the famous names who most people will bet on. But you as a value bettor know that this player has been in terrific form recently and the major is being held on the course he grew up playing on. The bookies have him at 500/1 to win but you know his chances are much better than that, so you can place a value bet on him each way.

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